COVID 19 supply audit

I have been attempting to reconcile the announced amount and timing of Pfizer vaccine to the TGA batch releases. This work is done with a view to encouraging some better public information about the Pfizer vaccine supply (and in general). If you want to take it further, please verify the source information yourself.

Spreadsheet

This work-in-progress Spreadsheet captures my current attempt at reconciliation of Pfizer batches (as per TGA) to supply announcements. It is available here: Pfizer Supply Audit (Australia).

This includes 3 more batches from the TGA Batch Release website updated 11 August 2021, and another 4 batches that were included on 12 August 2021.

Based on the limited information, we cannot confidently link the announced quantities to a specific batch tested by the TGA. The best we can do is line them up based on the time sequence (i.e. the announcement can only relate to batches completed prior to the date of the announcement).

Background notes (sources)

I have prepared a separate blog post, which will help you to follow the content and the relevant government announcements.

Please bear in mind:

• The delivery numbers quoted by the government seem to be based on maximum possible doses you can get from the Pfizer vials (6 doses per vial). The accurate quantity should be the number of vials and trays, but that’s not disclosed.
• The TGA ‘batch completion’ date seems to be the date that Pfizer’s overseas manufacturing process ready for delivery is completed. It should then be another few days at least before that delivery can arrive in Australia.

TGA Batch Release website and updates

Set out below is my summary of the Pfizer batch numbers processed by the TGA prior to testing and/or release. This is based on the information in the TGA batch releases web page, but I have filtered for Pfizer and resorted it into ascending batch date, so that the earliest batches appear first.

My general comments are:

• The TGA batch release web page is not updated anywhere near as regularly as the weekly Pfizer deliveries. It was last updated on or about 5 July 2021, and then on 11, 12 and 19 August 2021.
• The TGA website has had some ‘in progress’ batches for a couple of months now.
• The manufacturing (completed) dates of the disclosed Pfizer batches cannot be reconciled to weekly deliveries except for a few weeks in May – otherwise, what has been disclosed is too infrequent.
• As time progresses, there is even less information available to reconcile TGA batch numbers to delivered quantities.
• On 11 August 2021 there were no new manufactured batches listed on the TGA website with manufactured dates between 29 June 2021 and 27 July 2021.

The TGA updated its batch release website on or about 11 August 2021 (batches 28 to 30 below) and again on 12 August (batches 24 to 27 below).

The status of FC5029 (in progress), a recent batch dated 29 June 2021, did not change in the 11 August 2021 TGA web page update.

The TGA information update on 11 August 2021 included a shipment from batch FA4598, which had previously been part of a Pfizer Employee delivery on or about 22 June 2021.

TGA Batch release update overnight 19 August 2021

The TGA updated its batch release web page overnight 19 August 2021, changing the status of all batches to ‘passed’. It also made several changes to the data, which are most easily seen by a comparison between the previous day’s list and the next day’s list:

This latest update has removed two of the previous batch entries (FA4598 and FF8871, the latter being included as recently as last week). FA4598 (22 June) was originally described as a Pfizer Employee batch but those details are no longer included on the TGA web page.

It also added FE2090 (with a June 2021 batch release date), and added three more entries in the two weeks since 3 August 2021. One the latest 3 batches is a repeat batch number (FF0884), the same as a batch release dated 15 July 2021 .

Which of these batches is visible in the doses being received into people’s arms and how long is it taking?

Currently, I have some anecdotal information about dose delivery.

This information is for illustration only. The supply chain has not been analysed in detail.

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Have you received a dose of Pfizer from a batch that doesn’t appear?

I have some other anecdotal evidence that people have received vaccines from Pfizer batches that are not listed on the TGA website (and therefore my master spreadsheet, as at 5 August 2021). If you want to let me know of a Pfizer-Comirnaty vaccine batch number actually being used in a particular Australian State, at a particular time, that does not appear in the master spreadsheet, you can email me at:

software[-at-]craigduncan.com.au.

I will add that batch number to a list of unaccounted for batches that I will include here at a future date.